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Impact of new P1 framework 2022

Aug 6, 2022·3 min read Share

2022 P1 registration has almost come to a close.

What makes 2022 special are the 3 big changes that were introduced. To recap, they are:

1. Phase 2C reserved 40 places, instead of 20
2. Merge Phase 2A(1) and 2A(2), so no preference of paying alumni over non-paying
3. Update Home-School Distance, so the 1km/2km radius get bigger

So how did that affects the results? Let’s analyze.

Phase 2A - Increased over-subscription

• 2021 – 18 over-subscribed schools
• 2022 – 33 (+15, +83%)

The number of schools that are over-subscribed has increased by 83% in the new Phase 2A. This is largely because there are 20 places lesser as they are moved to Phase 2C.

Phase 2A - Elite schools impact

In addition, there is no preference between paying and non-paying former students, which will impact elite schools. Non-paying former students won’t mind trying. Why not, at no cost.

We compared the following top 5 schools.

• Number of applicants +15%
• Average over-subscription +19%
• St nick is an outliner, as it is somehow less sought after than in 2021
• Pei Hwa is on another extreme, being 2.55x oversubscribed in 2022 vs 1.21x in 2021

Phase 2B - Increased over-subscription

With the 20 places moved to Phase 2C, it affects all the prior phases, and 2B is no exception.

• 2021 – 28 over-subscribed schools
• 2022 – 33 (+5, +18%)

The number of schools that are over-subscribed has increased by 18%.

Moreover, we analyzed the top 20 schools, and the competition has heated up even more by an average of 27%. Taking Ai Tong as an example, in 2021 the application rate is 1.9x, while in 2022 it is 2.4x (that is +26%).

Phase 2C - Decreased over-subscription

With 20 more places, it has a significant impact in the over-subscription rate, especially for the popular schools. For example, Rulang only has 20 vacancy in 2021, but now it has 40 vacancy in 2022. As such, it greatly reduced application rate from 4.6x to 2.38x.

Hence let’s look at the impact for the top 20, 50 and 100 schools:

• Top 20 schools – Over-subscription dropped by 26%
• Top 50 schools – Over-subscription dropped by 13%
• Top 100 schools – Over-subscription dropped by 2%

Summary

1. Phase 2A now has 33 oversubscribed schools, which is +83% compared to previous year
2. Phase 2A top schools over-subscription +19%
3. Phase 2B top schools over-subscription +27%
4. Phase 2C top schools over-subscription -26%

(1) is because of the Phase 2A merge, while (2), (3) & (4) are because of the additional 20 places reserved for Phase 2C.