Which Primary Schools Will Be Harder to Enter After the 2026 P1 Vacancy Cuts?
Our overview post gave the macro picture: P1 vacancies fell −3.6% for 2026, tracking a −3.1% drop in the birth cohort. MOE is right-sizing supply to a smaller pool of children.
But a national average tells you nothing about your school. The cut isn’t spread evenly, and neither is demand. This post drills from that macro number down to all 73 schools that changed: does each change actually matter?
To gauge demand we lean on Phase 2C. It’s not the only phase, but it’s the biggest open one. A school oversubscribed in 2C that’s now cutting places gets even harder to enter. In this post we find out which schools are harder/easier.
Three things to keep in mind:
- Phase 2C has a 40-place floor. Schools already at it (Frontier, Rulang, etc) can’t cut 2C further, so the reduction comes from earlier phases. 2C balloting stays as tight as before; siblings and alumni get fewer slots.
- 8 schools here are GEP-2027 centres (Ahmad Ibrahim, Clementi, etc). From 2026, families who’d have aimed for the old 9 GEP schools may target these instead, possibly lifting demand.
- Township demographics, which we cover in depth next.
The demographic lens
Last year’s 2C demand is the cleanest signal, but it’s backward-looking. The forward signal is cohort size, and it’s shifting fast by area (SingStat 5-9 year old data).
Some changes in township for these 5-to-9-year-old population over 5-year and 1-year periods:
- Sengkang −9.9% (5Y), −3.6% (1Y). The decade-old BTO wave is aging out.
- Punggol −0.8% (5Y) but −3.4% (1Y). Just turned the corner; the decline is sharp.
- Tampines +29.2% (5Y), +4.8% (1Y). The only mature OCR town still genuinely growing.
- Tengah: Zero in 2023, ~1,060 in 2025. The blockbuster new town.
So: marginally oversubscribed Sengkang/Punggol schools may ease back toward the ballot line; heavily oversubscribed schools (>150%) stay tight everywhere; and cuts at undersubscribed Bukit Batok / Choa Chu Kang schools may reverse within 2-3 years as Tengah overflows.
Schools that will be more competitive (19)
These cut total vacancies despite already being oversubscribed in Phase 2C last year. Demand didn’t drop; the spots did. Sorted by how oversubscribed they were.
| School | Area | Change | 2C Vacancy | 2C Applied % | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maha Bodhi | Geylang | -30 | 49 | 255% | SAP, perennially balloted. Cut concentrates demand. |
| Rulang | Jurong West | -30 | 40 | 245% | 2C at the floor; cut hits earlier phases, harder for siblings/alumni. |
| Red Swastika | Bedok | -30 | 41 | 227% | 2C at the floor, heavy oversubscription. |
| Punggol Green | Punggol | -30 | 58 | 203% | Punggol’s most oversubscribed school. 203% won’t ease even with the cohort dip. Stays a ballot. |
| Shuqun | Jurong West | -20 | 41 | 193% | 2C at the floor; still a heavy ballot. |
| Tao Nan | Marine Parade | -30 | 45 | 180% | Top SAP, perennial 2C ballot. |
| Frontier | Jurong West | -30 | 40 | 165% | 2C at the floor; cut hits P1/2A. |
| Horizon | Punggol | -30 | 50 | 158% | Cut sharpens 2C competition. |
| Valour | Punggol | -30 | 57 | 154% | Cut tightens entry. |
| Nanyang | Bukit Timah | -30 | 42 | 150% | Top SAP. Cut concentrates demand. |
| Pasir Ris | Pasir Ris | -30 | 41 | 144% | 2C at the floor; cut hits earlier phases. |
| Westwood | Jurong West | -30 | 53 | 143% | Cut sharpens competition. |
| Jurong West | Jurong West | -30 | 59 | 131% | Oversubscribed and a GEP-2027 centre. Pressure builds further. |
| Bukit Panjang | Bukit Panjang | -30 | 61 | 128% | Cut tightens entry. |
| Punggol | Hougang | -10 | 59 | 127% | Hougang’s cohort now declining; 127% may ease toward 100% but stays tightish. |
| Paya Lebar Methodist Girls’ | Hougang | -30 | 89 | 124% | Girls-only affiliated. Cut tightens entry; affiliated priority still applies. |
| Compassvale | Sengkang | -30 | 96 | 117% | Just over the line. Sengkang’s shrinking cohort could pull it below 100%. |
| Hougang | Hougang | -10 | 98 | 117% | Small cut nudges entry tighter. |
| Rivervale | Sengkang | -20 | 96 | 116% | Thin oversubscription; Sengkang’s decline likely brings it near 100%. Light ballot at most. |
Other schools that cut places (42)
Demand here was below supply in 2025, often with places left at Phase 3. Unless noted, the cut just trims slack and doesn’t change entry difficulty. The remarks call out only the exceptions worth watching.
| School | Area | Change | 2C Vacancy | 2C Applied % | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clementi | Clementi | -80 | 231 | 37% | 145 places empty at 2C(S), 9 at Phase 3. Cut fits 2025 demand, but it’s a GEP-2027 centre, so watch for new demand. |
| Fernvale | Sengkang | -40 | 156 | 46% | |
| Jurong | Jurong East | -40 | 121 | 40% | |
| Lianhua | Bukit Batok | -40 | 242 | 11% | Among the most undersubscribed nationally, but sits next to Tengah. Some uplift likely within 2-3 years as the new town overflows. |
| Pei Tong | Clementi | -40 | 220 | 14% | |
| Tampines North | Tampines | -40 | 191 | 31% | Undersubscribed despite hot Tampines. |
| Yumin | Tampines | -40 | 201 | 5% | Deeper cuts may follow. |
| Anchor Green | Sengkang | -30 | 155 | 15% | |
| Bedok Green | Bedok | -30 | 195 | 15% | |
| Boon Lay Garden | Jurong West | -30 | 135 | 26% | |
| CHIJ (Kellock) | Bukit Merah | -30 | 123 | 46% | Girls-only affiliated; still below half-subscribed. |
| Cantonment | Bukit Merah | -30 | 116 | 25% | |
| Corporation | Jurong West | -30 | 109 | 21% | |
| De La Salle | Choa Chu Kang | -30 | 143 | 80% | Healthy demand. Cut could push into balloting in 2026, especially as Tengah overflows into Choa Chu Kang. |
| Edgefield | Punggol | -30 | 178 | 15% | |
| Endeavour | Sembawang | -30 | 174 | 39% | |
| First Toa Payoh | Toa Payoh | -30 | 151 | 7% | |
| Gan Eng Seng | Bukit Merah | -30 | 116 | 15% | |
| Greendale | Punggol | -30 | 128 | 19% | |
| New Town | Queenstown | -30 | 178 | 12% | |
| North Spring | Sengkang | -30 | 120 | 34% | |
| North Vista | Sengkang | -30 | 136 | 26% | |
| Northoaks | Sembawang | -30 | 201 | 5% | |
| Oasis | Punggol | -30 | 105 | 56% | Half-subscribed; cut moves toward tighter entry. |
| Palm View | Sengkang | -30 | 165 | 51% | GEP-2027 centre; demand may shift up. |
| Punggol View | Punggol | -30 | 77 | 73% | Cut plus GEP-2027 centre status may push into balloting. |
| Seng Kang | Sengkang | -30 | 127 | 9% | |
| Si Ling | Woodlands | -30 | 118 | 22% | |
| Springdale | Sengkang | -30 | 92 | 72% | Moderately popular; cut may tighten 2C balloting. |
| St. Anthony’s Canossian | Bedok | -30 | 164 | 20% | Girls-only affiliated, but low 2C demand. |
| St. Stephen’s | Bedok | -30 | 183 | 40% | Boys-only affiliated; below half-subscribed. |
| Teck Whye | Choa Chu Kang | -30 | 144 | 16% | Tengah overflow may reverse this within 2-3 years. |
| Unity | Choa Chu Kang | -30 | 143 | 38% | Tengah watch. |
| West Grove | Jurong West | -30 | 137 | 30% | |
| White Sands | Pasir Ris | -30 | 102 | 77% | Moderately popular; cut may push into balloting. |
| Yew Tee | Choa Chu Kang | -30 | 144 | 47% | GEP-2027 centre plus Tengah overflow; demand may shift up. |
| Yishun | Yishun | -30 | 122 | 41% | |
| Yuhua | Jurong East | -30 | 174 | 15% | |
| Xishan | Yishun | -20 | 146 | 45% | |
| Casuarina | Pasir Ris | -10 | 64 | 47% | |
| Fuhua | Jurong East | -10 | 119 | 26% | |
| Park View | Pasir Ris | -10 | 110 | 38% |
Schools that added places (12)
The question is whether the extra class eases competition. If demand was strong, the same pool eats the new spots. If demand was soft, the addition just sits on more empty seats.
| School | Area | Change | 2C Vacancy | 2C Applied % | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maris Stella High | Toa Payoh | +60 | 62 | 200% | Going co-ed; new girls applicants likely absorb the extra class. Don’t expect easier entry. |
| Bukit View | Bukit Batok | +40 | 202 | 46% | Not even half-subscribed, but on the Tengah edge; the +40 anticipates overflow more than current need. |
| Chongzheng | Tampines | +40 | 125 | 102% | Just oversubscribed. +40 eases pressure, but Tampines added 680 kids last year, so easing is likely temporary. |
| Gongshang | Tampines | +40 | 44 | 266% | Heavily oversubscribed. +40 helps, but demand dwarfs supply and the Tampines cohort is still growing. |
| Tampines | Tampines | +40 | 131 | 64% | Fastest-growing town and a GEP-2027 centre. Extra class absorbs growth and new interest. |
| Jiemin | Yishun | +30 | 101 | 38% | Undersubscribed; entry stays easy. |
| Pioneer | Jurong West | +30 | 332 | 58% | Relocated to Tengah (cohort 0→1,060 in 2 years) and a GEP-2027 centre. Easy entry probably won’t last past 2027. |
| Ahmad Ibrahim | Yishun | +20 | 185 | 17% | Severely undersubscribed, but a GEP-2027 centre; the +20 likely anticipates centre demand. |
| Peiying | Yishun | +20 | 105 | 50% | Half-subscribed; entry stays comfortable. |
| Bendemeer | Kallang | +10 | 133 | 20% | Token +10; no change. |
| Farrer Park | Kallang | +10 | 129 | 19% | Like Bendemeer; easy entry continues. |
| Kong Hwa | Geylang | +10 | 49 | 241% | Heavily oversubscribed every year. +10 is token; balloting stays the norm. |
Key Takeaways
- A small group genuinely gets harder. SAP and heavily-oversubscribed schools whose demand pool isn’t shrinking: Maha Bodhi, Tao Nan, Nanyang, Kong Hwa, Gongshang, Punggol Green, Horizon, Valour. A 3-10% cohort dip doesn’t rescue a 200%+ ballot.
- Marginal Sengkang/Punggol schools may ease back. Compassvale (117%), Rivervale (116%) and Punggol (127%) sit close enough to 100% that the cohort decline could pull them out of meaningful balloting, even after the cuts.
- 42 cuts are just bookkeeping. Most cut schools were undersubscribed in 2025, often with Phase 3 leftovers. MOE is aligning supply to demand, and the demographics confirm it.
- Watch Bukit Batok / Choa Chu Kang and Tampines. Tengah appeared with 1,060 5-to-9-year-olds; cuts at Lianhua, Teck Whye, Unity and Yew Tee may reverse within 2-3 years, and De La Salle (80%) could ballot sooner. Tampines stays undersupplied even after +120, so expect more additions in 2027-2028.
- Most “added” schools were already undersubscribed. Eight of the 12 had under 60% applied, so the extra class just widens a comfortable pool. The real-demand adds are Maris Stella High (co-ed), Gongshang and Chongzheng (Tampines), and Kong Hwa (Geylang); Bukit View is the Tengah play.
- Watch the GEP-2027 centres. Eight schools here are designated centres: three added (Ahmad Ibrahim, Pioneer, Tampines), five cut (Clementi, Jurong West, Palm View, Punggol View, Yew Tee). If parents shift toward them in 2026, the cut group could end up tighter than 2025 demand suggests.
For the overall numbers and area-level view, see the overview post. For the full planning-area demographic data, see where Singapore’s young families are moving.
